On Wednesday night, Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin followed through on his threat to invade his neighbor, the sovereign nation of Ukraine. It is difficult to know his actual motivations and what his plan is. But this is obviously an affront to the post-WW War II international order. And a tragedy for the Ukrainian people. […]
Dealing with the Russian Invasion of Ukraine Read More »
For the second consecutive year the US stock market posted an extraordinary gain. This, in the midst of a once-in-a-century pandemic. The S & P 500 (Total Return) index was up 28.71% for the year, including a 11.2% increase in the fourth quarter. On top of the utterly surprising 18.4% increase in 2020. Other asset
Q4 Client Note – A Good Year for Stocks, If Nothing Else Read More »
The S & P 500 (total return) index closed the quarter at a record high; up 8.55% for the quarter and 15.25% for the first six months, setting all kinds of winning streaks in the process. The MSCI Developed Markets Index rose 5.65%, with Europe beginning to get more people vaccinated and its economy opening
2nd Quarter Client Note – Will Inflation Rear Its Ugly Head? Read More »
When writing my client note at this time last year, we were in the vortex of the first wave of the Covid-19 pandemic. Cases were exploding around the world. Hospitals were overwhelmed – or nearly so. And deaths were mounting. Social distancing had been imposed. Businesses were shuttered. There were massive layoffs, particularly in the
1st Quarter Client Note – Still Standing Read More »
If you would have told me in April when I was writing my 1st quarter client note, reporting 19.6% loss, that the S & P 500 would be up by 18.40% for the year; I would have asked what you were smoking. At that moment, we were at the beginning of the pandemic and its
4th Quarter Client Note Read More »
Welcome to whiplash land. The S&P 500 (Total Return) Index gained 8.93% in the quarter and 5.57% year-to-date. On August 18, the index reached a record high for the first time since the COVID-19 bear market began on February 19. In just 126 trading days, the fastest bear market recovery on record, the market erased
3rd Quarter Client Note – COVID and Politics, a Potent Cocktail Read More »
What’s better for investors, Republican Presidents or Democrat Presidents? It’s a trick question. First, because in general, over the long run, it doesn’t matter. While some data correlates Democratic administrations with stronger markets since the end of World War II, there is no evidence of a cause and effect relationship. And this nifty interactive exhibit
Preparing for Short-Term Election Volatility Read More »
The US stock market just had its best quarter in more than 20 years. (Yes, you heard that right.) Of course, that was on the heels of one of the scariest quarters in history, fueled by the Coronavirus pandemic reaching US shores in February. At its worst, on March 23, the S&P 500 was down
2nd Quarter Client Note Read More »
There are decades when nothing happens; and there are weeks when decades happen. I’m pretty sure that’s the first time I have quoted Vladimir Lenin in a client note. And probably the last. A great deal has indeed happened since my first post on the coronavirus pandemic, when the implications were just beginning to emerge. The public health implications
1st Quarter Client Note – Covid-19 Edition Read More »
After a fitful bout of volatility during the month of August, including an 800 point one-day drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500 (Total Return) Index turned in a respectable 1.70% gain for the quarter. That brought the year-to-date return to an extraordinary 20.55%. (For context, the most recent 12-month return, which
3rd Quarter Client Note Read More »
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