Welcome to whiplash land. The S&P 500 (Total Return) Index gained 8.93% in the quarter and 5.57% year-to-date. On August 18, the index reached a record high for the first time since the COVID-19 bear market began on February 19. In just 126 trading days, the fastest bear market recovery on record, the market erased […]
3rd Quarter Client Note – COVID and Politics, a Potent Cocktail Read More »
What’s better for investors, Republican Presidents or Democrat Presidents? It’s a trick question. First, because in general, over the long run, it doesn’t matter. While some data correlates Democratic administrations with stronger markets since the end of World War II, there is no evidence of a cause and effect relationship. And this nifty interactive exhibit
Preparing for Short-Term Election Volatility Read More »
“Trillions of dollars of debt! This is what Republicans stand for?” Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, reacting to his own party’s proposed stimulus legislation in July. “Now is not the time to worry about shrinking the deficit.” Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, on September 15 2020. “If you elect me, your taxes are going to be raised.”
There are decades when nothing happens; and there are weeks when decades happen. I’m pretty sure that’s the first time I have quoted Vladimir Lenin in a client note. And probably the last. A great deal has indeed happened since my first post on the coronavirus pandemic, when the implications were just beginning to emerge. The public health implications
1st Quarter Client Note – Covid-19 Edition Read More »
If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs… Rudyard Kipling, from the poem If, circa 1895 We will forever be debating the causes of the 2008 financial crisis and the government’s attempts to minimize its effects. But the worst modern bear market other than the one caused by the Great
Celebrating the Ten-Year Anniversary of the Market Bottom Read More »
Millions of American investors – including yours truly – owe a debt of gratitude to John “Jack” Bogle, who died on January 16 at the age of 89. Adulations have been pouring in for the inventor of the index fund (dubbed “Bogle’s Folly by critics at the time) and founder of Vanguard. Even from the
Owed to Saint Jack. RIP Read More »
A couple of forward-thinking real estate professionals in Boulder are prognosticating that the blockchain technology and Bitcoin – the most popular form of digital currency – will revolutionize real estate transactions, the Boulder Daily Camera reports. And they may be right. At least in part. Jim Merrion, a Boulder realtor, claims to have promoted Colorado’s
Is Cryptocurrency the Future of Real Estate? Read More »
The S & P 500 (total return) Index bounced back from its first quarter (.75%) loss, rising 3.43% in the second quarter. But US stocks were the lone wolf; with virtually all other major asset classes falling. The MSCI World (ex USA) Index fell 2.61%, while the MSCI Emerging Markets Index dropped 7.96%. After being
2nd Quarter Client Note – Fed Up With Rising Rates Read More »
My earlier post on Professor Eugene Fama’s Nobel Prize in Economics needed a bit of a side bar tying together my thoughts on a couple of the ironies exposed by his award.
A Closer Look at Nobel-Prize-Winning Ironies Read More »
The “fiscal cliff” is staring us in the face. The best chance of averting the consequences of failure to reach agreement will be in January, after the new Congress is seated. In the meantime, it is good to understand the details and to also do some planning.
Cliff Notes: Peering over the Fiscal Cliff and Living to Tell the Story Read More »
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